Thanks all that helped, I handed in my paper today.
Here's the beast for those who are intersted, I had some graphs in there that I left out here cause i'm too lazy to upload. (ps: no plagerizing my work):
Global Warming
There are many people and much evidence that supports global warming is happening, but on the other hand there are also many people and much evidence that makes the global warming theory look like nonsense. Both sides are usually only telling half the information, while leaving out the other half that would make their argument look less strong. Both arguments will agree that the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are rising. It is the effects of the rising CO2 levels that people’s opinions differ about. Some people use global warming as a blame for the melting of glaciers, and warming from the CO2 levels rising. Others use evidence to say global warming isn’t happening such as factoring in water vapor to the data, how solar activity affects the temperature, and the effects of volcanic activity. Also, there is known to be a natural cycle that is occurring which skews the argument. There is much information from both sides that contradict each other and there is also a lot that helps make the side stronger.
One main argument that global warming supporters use is the fact that the Earth is receiving more energy from the sun than what it releases into space. Studies have shown that there is an energy imbalance between the energy amount at the top of the atmosphere from solar radiation to the amount released back to space. Researches use the oceans in their studies, but "Measuring the imbalance directly is extremely difficult, because you are looking for a very small number on a background of very large numbers." The Earth takes in 0.85 watts/meter sq more energy than that released. Some variables that affect the amount of energy being reflected into space are atmosphere, oceans, winds, currents, greenhouse gases, and miscellaneous pollutants (Black). The greenhouse gases absorb most of the energy, because they absorb radiation from Earth’s surface. There is a time delay from the absorption of energy by the atmosphere, which causes heating of the oceans.
Many of the unusual and destructive weather patterns, such as hurricanes, that have been seen lately are thought by some to be cause by Global Warming. Ever since 1995 there has been an increase in hurricane activity in the Atlantics. There were a record number of 28 hurricanes that happened last year. Some of the ones that were Category 5 strength include Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Temperature affects the intensity and frequency of hurricanes, and there has been a lot of data that show raises in temperature. Atlantic hurricanes have been an average of 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in comparison to 1901-1970 averages. Research has shown that global warming contributed .8 degrees F to the rise, El Niño contributed .4 degrees F, the Atlantic Oscillation cycle contributed .2, and the rest is from normal fluctuation of temperature (Global Warming Surpassed). With the temperature and sea levels continuing to rise, the Atlantic hurricanes may only continue to get worse.
The effects of global warming can already be seen with glaciers in the Artic today. Sea levels are continuing to grow higher and higher. They are now rising an average of an inch per decade. The warming of the Earth is causing the ice shelves of the Antarctic edges to be destabilized, which causes collapsing. Also, the pollution in the atmosphere is absorbed by the ice, which causes it to absorb more sunlight, and therefore melts faster. Large-scale effects on ice sheets are being seen in Greenland and West Antarctica. Records have shown that only a rise in seawater by 3.5 meters came from the exiting of the Interglacial Period. Other records have shown that at the present sea levels have risen a total of 4-6 meters, which shows that much water has come from the melting of glaciers (Antarctic Melting).
Another main argument is that the carbon dioxide levels are rising, which will lead to more serious effects. Plants take in CO2, H20, and light and then release glucose, oxygen, and water. With the massive new amounts of CO2 being produced, the plants are not able to convert all the C02 through photosynthesis. The CO2 then drifts up into the atmosphere and affects cloud formation. More clouds are produced, and they trap in the heat that is on Earth, which is referred to as the greenhouse effect. On the other hand, some skeptics believe that the more cloud cover there is will result in the Earth being blocked from the sun, and therefore it will cool down.
No matter what belief one has, it is a concluded fact that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are rising. Before the Industrial revolution the concentration of carbon dioxide was around 281 ppm. Data now shows that the concentration of CO2 is 381 ppm, which is higher than the Earth has had for over millions of years. The largest increase recorded was a rise of 2.6 ppm in 2005. The rate of increase has doubled since 30 years ago, and the rate of increase keeps on growing larger. Scientists fear that sudden changes may occur from the levels of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere (Shukman). Recently, researchers have removed 800,000-year-old ice that was 3.2 km from the surface. The air bubbles in the ice samples have proven that the rate of carbon levels in the atmosphere is much higher than that of hundreds of thousands of years ago. Before human activities had interfered with carbon levels, the highest increase had been 30 ppm within a time span of 1000 years. Presently, within the past 17 years there has been an increase of 30 ppm (Amos).
While there is much evidence that gives reasons why global warming may exist, there is also much evidence that gives reasons why it may not exist. Some, such as William M. Gray, believe that "human kind has little or nothing to do with the recent temperature changes” (qtd. In Gray). Many claim that the Earth is going through a natural cycle, which has already existed before in history, and is causing the temperature to rise. This natural cycle will eventually balance out though. Some other natural factors contribute to the warming, which are out of our hands to stop. Difference in the salinity of ocean currents is an example, as it causes warming. It is a known fact that temperature will always fluctuate, so it may just be that the differences in average temperature are higher just by chance. Scientists expect that by the year of 2100 the temperature will rise three to five degrees Celsius. This means that it will be just as warm as it was 130,000 years ago, even though the sea levels back then would be 6 meters higher (Antartic Melting).
A big part of the anti-global warming argument is that the warming is happening on Earth in present times is part of a natural cycle. Global warming has happened long before many have assumed. Earth has gone through ice ages and glaciers for the past million years. Every 100,000 years Earth goes through interglacial periods, when the temperature rises and the Earth is warmer. These periods allow Earth to temporarily exit the ice age that it was in before reentering another ice age 15,000 – 20,000 years later. Earth exited the Pleistocene Ice Age around 18,000 years ago, so it is getting nearer to reentering a new ice age. Around 15,000 years ago was the point when Earth was warm enough for the sea levels to start rising, which led to escaping the ice age. The average temperature of the Earth has risen around 16 degrees Fahrenheit and sea levels have risen around 91.44 meters since the end of the Pleistocene Ice Age (Hieb, and Harrison).
Smaller cycles of cooling and warming also happen on Earth. There are 40-year cycles that occur in larger 400-year cycles, which occur in larger 20,000-year cycles. From 1400 AD – 1860 AD there was a cooling named the Little Ice Age. The change in temperature was only by 0.5 degrees Celsius, but it still caused harsh winters, shorter growing seasons, and a drier climate. Now, the global temperatures are the same as what was experienced from 1000 AD – 1350 AD, which was referred to as the Medieval Warm Period (Hieb and Harrison). The graph below shows the temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period to those of the Little Ice Age. This natural cycle may be the cause of the higher temperatures that are being felt now, and will eventually start to lower. Dr. John R Christy states that, “Earth was evidently coming out of a relatively cold period in the 1800s so that warming in the past century may be part of this natural recovery” (qtd. In Hieb and Harrison).
Many people who believe that global warming exists fails to recognize solar activity in their argument. The sun is a variable star and its constant is not continuous. The distance between its nucleus and the center of the mass of the solar system varies from eleven-year cycles. This varying distance disturbs the internal circulation of the sun, which causes solar activity such as sun flares and eruptions (The Solar Constant). There is a concern about the intensity of the solar activity that is currently happening being caused from the point in the cycle that the sun is at. During periods of high solar activity, there is an increase in energy being released from the sun, which results in the Earth’s heat being increased. High amounts of energy release also causes disruption with cosmic radiation coming from the sun to the Earth. This disturbance results in less cloud formation, which causes less precipitation. Solar activity peaked in 1999, and is not expected to start slowing down until 2010 (The Solar Constant). The figure below depicts the fundamental motion of the sun in a heliocentric coordinate system. Solar activity is not the only natural influence to global warming.
Volcanic activity is another natural influence in global warming that many people who support the belief in global warming fail to acknowledge. There has been an increase in volcanic activity ever since the 1980s. Thousands of tons of carbon dioxide are released into the air whenever there is volcanic activity. Massive amounts of water vapor along with gases such as SO2, Cl2, and HCl are also released (The Effects of Volcanoes). The water vapor that is released from volcanic activity causes cloud formation, which results in greenhouse warming. It also affects cloud derivatives. Unlike solar activity, volcanic activity is unpredictable because there are no cycles. This makes it hard for scientists to be able to speculate as to what will happen in the years to come (Solar and Volcanic Activity). There is still more evidence that disproves global warming besides volcanic activity though.
Factoring water vapor into scientific data can change the results, and make it appear as if humans are contributing more to the greenhouse effect than they actually are. If water vapor is factored in as a greenhouse gas than human activity affects the greenhouse effect only by 0.28%. If water vapor is not taken into account then human activity affects the greenhouse effect by 5.53% (Hieb). The figure below shows comparisons between human activity impacts and natural origin impacts to the greenhouse effect. Water vapor is the most considerable greenhouse gas. Earth’s greenhouse gases are composed of 95% water vapor. It comes from 99% natural origin. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other miscellaneous gases are also greenhouse gases that come from almost all-natural origin (Hieb). A small percentage of greenhouse gases come from human activities such as farming, manufacturing, power generating, and transportation. The ratio between the emissions from human activities and emissions from natural origins is so small that investing money to lower human activities contributing to the greenhouse effect would have an insignificant impact.
The present day concerns about global warming looks doubtful when compared to the concerns about global cooling in the 1970s. In 1972 Cesare Emiliani stated that, “Man's activity may either precipitate this new ice age or lead to substantial or even total melting of the ice caps” (qtd. In Conolley). Concerns of global warming are similar to those of the global cooling. The press was reporting information without being fully supported by sufficient scientific data. Sufficient collections of records of hemispheric or global temperature were begun in 1970. Therefore, in perspective, the records may cause present temperature averages to seem higher than they should be.
After looking through biased information, the answer to whether global warming is occurring or not still remains a mystery. However, it is possible to lean more to one side, and after research I have leaned towards the side that states global warming is not happening. There is always chance in weather, just like a flip of a coin. The weather is known to be inconsistent, so there is always going to be variations of temperature. There is also solid proof from the ancient ice that allows the natural cycle theory to be proven true. Temperatures are expected to rise if research shows the Earth is in a natural cycle and it is at the point where it is supposed to be warmer than average. There is a lot of information that proves global warming supporters wrong, such as factoring in water vapor to the data, how solar activity affects the temperature, and the effects of volcanic activity. With all the evidence that concludes global warming is not happening, it is clear to see that most of the warming causes are out of our hands. Since the warming is out of our hands, than we should not be worrying because there is not much that we can do. There will always be the argument whether on not global warming happened until strong information is released to support either side.